October 15 update: Final approvals verified for CO, CT, DC, IL, ME, MD, NY, OR, PA, RI and the WA Exchange individual market. See official sources and market scope ↓. Market Scores retain their prior review date.
THE MARKET, FOUR WAYS
National intelligence map
Switch lenses to see rate pressure, individual-versus-small-group positioning, completed ICHRA Shop Market Scores, or regulatory status. Select a state for decision-ready detail.
Lower pressureHigher pressure
Employer exposure lab
—Illustrative annual premium exposure if the selected statewide
trend applied uniformly. Not a quote.
National pressure board
MORE THAN A RATE TRACKER
The ICHRA decision layer
Rate filings describe a market. They do not determine whether an ICHRA works for a specific employer.
Market Score™
Your completed reviews combine rate direction with carrier choice, geography, market structure, affordability and risk-pool signals.
Workforce fit
Employee age, ZIP, household, subsidy eligibility and provider preferences can matter more than the statewide average.
Cost conversion
Turn a percentage headline into PEPM and annual employer exposure using a real census and a defensible contribution strategy.
Carrier dispersion
A wide carrier range can create opportunity for some employees and disruption for others. The average hides both.
Risk Intelligence
Enrollment loss, morbidity pressure, MLR, exits and shrinking scale help explain whether pricing pressure may persist.
Decision discipline
The conclusion is not “ICHRA everywhere.” It is where to model, where to proceed, and where to be cautious.
35Rate competitiveness
20Carrier competition
15Off-exchange opportunity
15Affordability programs
10Employer environment
5Market momentum
| State | Earlier IND estimate | Final avg | Latest small group / status | IND−SG | Carriers | Carrier range | Market Score | Status |
|---|
PREDICTIVE RISK INTELLIGENCE
See what the renewal has been hiding.
Traditional small-group and ICHRA quotes show price. Our analysis can show the population, affordability, condition, prescription and projected-risk signals behind the next benefits decision—even for groups with as few as five lives.
Groups from 5 lives12-month projected riskHigh-cost claimant rangesSpecialty Rx intelligence
DE-IDENTIFIED ILLUSTRATIVE REPORT2027 Decision Intelligence
Strategy gradeA
Employees analyzed1,060
Match confidence86.4%
Projected risk1.08
ICHRA SAVINGS MARGIN CALCULATOR
How much savings survives the fees?
Compare a projected 2027 group renewal with an individual-market strategy, then see how administration, broker compensation and implementation costs change the employer's actual result.
2027 FEE PRESSURE TEST
Layer in the fees
Projected group renewal PEPM$0
vs.
Projected individual-market PEPM$0
Gross medical savings$0
Admin + broker + setup−$0
Net employer savings$0
Net savings PEPM$0
Annual net savings$0
Gross savings retained0%
Planning model only. State filing averages are directional—not plan quotes. Validate premiums by employee age, ZIP code, household, carrier, network and coverage tier before recommending an ICHRA.
SOURCE-CHECKED OCTOBER 15, 2026 · PLAN YEAR 2027
Final approvals: the latest verified rate changes.
Eleven markets checked against regulator or official exchange releases. Ten have verified individual and small-group averages; Washington has an Exchange individual-market approval only. These are approved gross premium trends, not employee quotes or proof that a particular 2027 plan is available through an API.
| Market | Final individual | Final small group | Announcement | Official source & scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | +10% | +14% | 2026-09-22 | Colorado Division of Insurance ↗Individual and small-group statewide averages |
| Connecticut | +11.3% | +15.1% | 2026-09-11 | Connecticut Insurance Department ↗Fully insured individual and small group, on and off Exchange |
| District of Columbia | +9.9% | +11.5% | 2026-09-18 | DC DISB ↗DC Health Link individual and small-business plans |
| Illinois | +14.1% | +17.6% | 2026-10-13 | Illinois Department of Insurance ↗Individual and small-group ACA final filings |
| Maine | +14.8% | +13.5% | 2026-08-14 | Maine Bureau of Insurance ↗Individual and small-employer markets |
| Maryland | +14.6% | +10.2% | 2026-09-25 | Maryland Insurance Administration ↗Unsubsidized individual ACA and small-group averages |
| New York | +6% | +8% | 2026-09-04 | New York Department of Financial Services ↗Individual and small-group approved market averages |
| Oregon | +21.6% | +15.5% | 2026-08-18 | Oregon Division of Financial Regulation ↗Individual and small-group final rate orders |
| Pennsylvania | +15.97% | +10.28% | 2026-09-18 | Pennsylvania Insurance Department ↗Enrollment-weighted individual and small-group averages |
| Rhode Island | +12.4% | +3.8% | 2026-09-29 | Rhode Island OHIC ↗Enrollment-weighted individual and small-group averages |
| Washington | +22.2% | Not verified | 2026-09-09 | Washington Health Benefit Exchange / OIC ↗Exchange individual-market approval; not an off-Exchange statewide average |
Still awaiting verification here: California’s 9.9% announcement remains preliminary in the reviewed Covered California announcement. Florida OIR lists 2027 report headings, but the reviewed page does not provide linked final tables. Neither is promoted to final in this update. Other states retain their earlier status unless separately marked.
Use the right comparison: Statewide trends have different enrollment weights and scopes. A lower IND trend does not establish a lower IND premium. Existing Market Scores are retained from prior reviews and have not been rescored for this rate refresh. Check carrier, ZIP, age, network, plan design and off-Exchange availability before making an employer recommendation.
Model the employee—not the statewide average.
Order a 2027 Market Report or request a census-level ICHRA feasibility analysis.
Data discipline: Filing figures are statewide averages and may be weighted, semi-weighted or unweighted depending on available enrollment data. Florida individual figures are unweighted because carrier enrollment is protected as a trade secret. “Final” identifies a regulator-approved value where supplied. Market Score™ is proprietary analysis by The ICHRA Shop and appears only for reviewed states. Sources include ACA Signups, state insurance departments and public carrier filings. This is market analysis—not tax, legal or actuarial advice.